BHP Group Limited logo BHP - BHP Group Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 20
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $71.50
CONSENSUS: $71.50
DOWNSIDE: 14.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 58.1% above fair value
Current Price $83.79
Bear Case $49.59 40.8% downside ($49.59 - $83.79) / $83.79 = -40.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $53.00 36.7% downside ($53.00 - $83.79) / $83.79 = -36.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $58.13 30.6% downside ($58.13 - $83.79) / $83.79 = -30.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 24.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.6% vs our 3.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.50 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.00 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $71.50 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions