Business First Bancshares, Inc. logo BFST - Business First Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $36.00
LOW: $33.00
MEDIAN: $34.50
CONSENSUS: $34.50
UPSIDE: 9.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.2% below fair value
Current Price $31.47
Bear Case $23.75 24.5% downside ($23.75 - $31.47) / $31.47 = -24.5% ROTCE 8.7% → 1.02x TBV
Fair Value $38.46 22.2% upside ($38.46 - $31.47) / $31.47 = 22.2% ROTCE 11.5% → 1.65x TBV
Bull Case $47.29 50.3% upside ($47.29 - $31.47) / $31.47 = 50.3% ROTCE 13.3% → 2.03x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.5%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.35x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.5% vs. 8.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.65x on $23.30 tangible book, implying $38.46 per share. DDM cross-check: $15.67.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $15.67 (59% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly