Business First Bancshares, Inc. logo BFST - Business First Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $33.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $33.00
CONSENSUS: $32.33
UPSIDE: 16.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.1% below fair value
Current Price $27.84
Bear Case $23.58 15.3% downside ($23.58 - $27.84) / $27.84 = -15.3% ROTCE 8.7% → 1.01x TBV
Fair Value $38.18 37.2% upside ($38.18 - $27.84) / $27.84 = 37.2% ROTCE 11.5% → 1.64x TBV
Bull Case $46.95 68.6% upside ($46.95 - $27.84) / $27.84 = 68.6% ROTCE 13.3% → 2.02x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.5%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.2x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.5% vs. 8.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.64x on $23.30 tangible book, implying $38.18 per share. DDM cross-check: $14.01.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $14.01 (63% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly