Brandywine Realty Trust logo BDN - Brandywine Realty Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 13
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $3.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $3.00
LOW: $3.00
MEDIAN: $3.00
CONSENSUS: $3.00
UPSIDE: 0.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 56.9% below fair value
Current Price $3.00
Bear Case $5.51 83.8% upside ($5.51 - $3.00) / $3.00 = 83.8% $0.67 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $6.97 132.2% upside ($6.97 - $3.00) / $3.00 = 132.2% $0.67 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $8.43 181.0% upside ($8.43 - $3.00) / $3.00 = 181.0% $0.67 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
0.67$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.67) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 4.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $3.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.97 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 13.0% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $3.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 176% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify