Brandywine Realty Trust logo BDN - Brandywine Realty Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 13
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $3.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $3.00
LOW: $3.00
MEDIAN: $3.00
CONSENSUS: $3.00
DOWNSIDE: 3.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.7% below fair value
Current Price $3.12
Bear Case $6.25 100.3% upside ($6.25 - $3.12) / $3.12 = 100.3% $0.68 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $7.94 154.4% upside ($7.94 - $3.12) / $3.12 = 154.4% $0.68 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $9.62 208.4% upside ($9.62 - $3.12) / $3.12 = 208.4% $0.68 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
0.68$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.68) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 4.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.68 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $7.94 per share. Dividend yield: 10.3%. DDM cross-check: $5.96.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (24 analysts) $3.00
Analyst Range $3.00 – $3.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 165%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 10.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $3.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 165% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify