BDN - Brandywine Realty Trust
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$3.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$3.00
LOW:
$3.00
MEDIAN:
$3.00
CONSENSUS:
$3.00
DOWNSIDE:
3.85%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
13.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($0.68) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
4.6x
Plain-Language Summary
At $0.68 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $7.94 per share. Dividend yield: 10.3%. DDM cross-check: $5.96.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$3.00
Analyst Range
$3.00 – $3.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
165%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 10.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $3.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 165% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify