Southern California Bancorp logo BCAL - Southern California Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
UPSIDE: 15.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.8% below fair value
Current Price $19.02
Bear Case $45.23 137.8% upside ($45.23 - $19.02) / $19.02 = 137.8% ROTCE 10.6% → 3.25x TBV
Fair Value $55.61 192.4% upside ($55.61 - $19.02) / $19.02 = 192.4% ROTCE 14.1% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $55.61 192.4% upside ($55.61 - $19.02) / $19.02 = 192.4% ROTCE 16.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.1%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.37x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.1% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $13.90 tangible book, implying $55.61 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly