Best Buy Co., Inc. logo BBY - Best Buy Co., Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 24
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.08 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $84.08
DOWNSIDE: 3.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.9% above fair value
Current Price $87.01
Bear Case $70.56 18.9% downside ($70.56 - $87.01) / $87.01 = -18.9% $5.04 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $80.64 7.3% downside ($80.64 - $87.01) / $87.01 = -7.3% $5.04 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $90.72 4.3% upside ($90.72 - $87.01) / $87.01 = 4.3% $5.04 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
5.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.04, the base-case value is $80.64 per share. DDM cross-check: $75.35.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (41 analysts) $84.08
Analyst Range $60.00 – $100.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples