Best Buy Co., Inc. logo BBY - Best Buy Co., Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 21
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $96.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $72.00
CONSENSUS: $73.25
UPSIDE: 18.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.4% below fair value
Current Price $61.63
Bear Case $68.62 11.3% upside ($68.62 - $61.63) / $61.63 = 11.3% $5.04 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $78.42 27.2% upside ($78.42 - $61.63) / $61.63 = 27.2% $5.04 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $88.23 43.2% upside ($88.23 - $61.63) / $61.63 = 43.2% $5.04 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
5.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $73.25 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $78.42 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $135.06 (above our primary estimate by 67%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples