BANC - Banc of California, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$15.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$20.00
LOW:
$10.00
MEDIAN:
$15.00
CONSENSUS:
$15.00
DOWNSIDE:
12.41%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
7.1%
10.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.1%) vs. cost of equity (10.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.82x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 7.1% vs. 10.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.48x on $20.96 tangible book, implying $9.98 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$15.00
Analyst Range
$10.00 – $20.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.1%) is below the minimum investors require (10.5%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly