Bank of America Corporation logo BAC - Bank of America Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 35
HOLD 18
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $65.82 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $59.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $65.82
UPSIDE: 7.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.6% above fair value
Current Price $61.27
Bear Case $38.10 37.8% downside ($38.10 - $61.27) / $61.27 = -37.8% ROTCE 9.8% → 0.85x TBV
Fair Value $54.43 11.2% downside ($54.43 - $61.27) / $61.27 = -11.2% ROTCE 13.0% → 1.33x TBV
Bull Case $70.76 15.5% upside ($70.76 - $61.27) / $61.27 = 15.5% ROTCE 15.0% → 1.62x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.0%
10.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.86x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.82 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $54.43 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $24.51 (49% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.82 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly