Bank of America Corporation logo BAC - Bank of America Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 35
HOLD 18
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $66.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $59.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $66.00
UPSIDE: 5.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.9% above fair value
Current Price $62.76
Bear Case $33.81 46.1% downside ($33.81 - $62.76) / $62.76 = -46.1% ROTCE 9.8% → 0.86x TBV
Fair Value $48.30 23.0% downside ($48.30 - $62.76) / $62.76 = -23.0% ROTCE 13.0% → 1.34x TBV
Bull Case $62.79 0.1% upside ($62.79 - $62.76) / $62.76 = 0.1% ROTCE 15.0% → 1.63x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.0%
10.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.9x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.0% vs. 10.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.34x on $33.00 tangible book, implying $48.30 per share. DDM cross-check: $28.66.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (54 analysts) $66.00
Analyst Range $59.00 – $75.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 27%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $28.66 (41% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $66.00 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly