BAC - Bank of America Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$66.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$75.00
LOW:
$59.00
MEDIAN:
$65.00
CONSENSUS:
$66.00
UPSIDE:
5.17%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
13.0%
10.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.9x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 13.0% vs. 10.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.34x on $33.00 tangible book, implying $48.30 per share. DDM cross-check: $28.66.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (54 analysts)
$66.00
Analyst Range
$59.00 – $75.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $28.66 (41% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $66.00 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly