Bank of America Corporation logo BAC - Bank of America Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 36
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $61.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $71.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $61.13
UPSIDE: 18.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.9% below fair value
Current Price $51.80
Bear Case $36.95 28.7% downside ($36.95 - $51.80) / $51.80 = -28.7% ROTCE 9.8% → 0.82x TBV
Fair Value $52.79 1.9% upside ($52.79 - $51.80) / $51.80 = 1.9% ROTCE 13.0% → 1.29x TBV
Bull Case $68.63 32.5% upside ($68.63 - $51.80) / $51.80 = 32.5% ROTCE 15.0% → 1.57x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.0%
11.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.57x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $61.13 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.79 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $23.29 (52% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly