AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies American Express Company as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag AXP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is American Express Company's fair value?

Fair value for AXP comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value AXP?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. AXP was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from AXP's most recent reported fundamentals.

AXP - American Express Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $378.09 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 35.5% above fair value

Current Price $334.16

Bear Case $172.63 48.3% downside ($172.63 - $334.16) / $334.16 = -48.3% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.62x TBV

Fair Value $246.62 26.2% downside ($246.62 - $334.16) / $334.16 = -26.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.44x TBV

Bull Case $320.61 4.1% downside ($320.61 - $334.16) / $334.16 = -4.1% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

38.0%

Cost of Equity

10.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (38.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 7.91x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 38.0% vs. 10.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.44x on $42.22 tangible book, implying $246.62 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (57 analysts) $378.09

Analyst Range $315.00 – $415.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $378.09 (from 57 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly