AXP - American Express Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$363.45
DETAILS
HIGH:
$400.00
LOW:
$315.00
MEDIAN:
$380.00
CONSENSUS:
$363.45
UPSIDE:
17.94%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
38.0%
10.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (38.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.3x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 38.0% vs. 10.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.35x on $42.22 tangible book, implying $246.62 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (57 analysts)
$363.45
Analyst Range
$315.00 – $400.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $363.45 (from 57 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly