AXP - American Express Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$381.83
DETAILS
HIGH:
$415.00
LOW:
$324.00
MEDIAN:
$387.50
CONSENSUS:
$381.83
UPSIDE:
8.91%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
38.0%
10.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (38.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
8.39x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $381.83 from 57 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $293.94 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $381.83 (from 57 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly