AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes AXIA Energia S.A.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag AXIA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is AXIA Energia S.A.'s fair value?

Fair value for AXIA is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value AXIA?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from AXIA's most recent reported fundamentals.

AXIA - AXIA Energia S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 43.8% below fair value

Current Price $9.91

Bear Case $12.14 22.5% upside ($12.14 - $9.91) / $9.91 = 22.5% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Fair Value $17.64 78.0% upside ($17.64 - $9.91) / $9.91 = 78.0% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Bull Case $23.00 132.1% upside ($23.00 - $9.91) / $9.91 = 132.1% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

9.7%

Discount Rate (WACC)

11.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%

Implied Market Multiple 13.7x

Market is pricing in (growth) 3.9% vs our 9.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.64 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1970 USD per BRL.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions