Broadcom Inc. logo AVGO - Broadcom Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 54
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $509.61 DETAILS
HIGH: $600.00
LOW: $350.00
MEDIAN: $517.50
CONSENSUS: $509.61
UPSIDE: 44.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 171.6% above fair value
Current Price $352.81
Bear Case $80.15 77.3% downside ($80.15 - $352.81) / $352.81 = -77.3% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $129.90 63.2% downside ($129.90 - $352.81) / $352.81 = -63.2% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $185.07 47.5% downside ($185.07 - $352.81) / $352.81 = -47.5% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 70.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 28.0% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $129.90 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (60 analysts) $509.61
Analyst Range $350.00 – $600.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 75%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $509.61 (from 60 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions