Broadcom Inc. logo AVGO - Broadcom Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 51
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $506.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $582.00
LOW: $400.00
MEDIAN: $520.00
CONSENSUS: $506.50
UPSIDE: 21.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 220.3% above fair value
Current Price $416.05
Bear Case $80.15 80.7% downside ($80.15 - $416.05) / $416.05 = -80.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $129.90 68.8% downside ($129.90 - $416.05) / $416.05 = -68.8% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $185.07 55.5% downside ($185.07 - $416.05) / $416.05 = -55.5% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 82.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.2% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $129.90 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (59 analysts) $506.50
Analyst Range $400.00 – $582.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 74%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $506.50 (from 59 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions