Broadcom Inc. logo AVGO - Broadcom Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 51
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $498.19 DETAILS
HIGH: $582.00
LOW: $400.00
MEDIAN: $508.50
CONSENSUS: $498.19
UPSIDE: 36.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 48.0% above fair value
Current Price $365.02
Bear Case $151.03 58.6% downside ($151.03 - $365.02) / $365.02 = -58.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $246.66 32.4% downside ($246.66 - $365.02) / $365.02 = -32.4% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $352.69 3.4% downside ($352.69 - $365.02) / $365.02 = -3.4% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 84.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.4% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $498.19 from 58 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $246.66 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $498.19 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions