AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ARM as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares's fair value?

Fair value for ARM is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ARM?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ARM's most recent reported fundamentals.

ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $318.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 135.7% above fair value

Current Price $244.74

Bear Case $58.38 76.1% downside ($58.38 - $244.74) / $244.74 = -76.1% 12% rev growth, 21% terminal margin

Fair Value $103.84 57.6% downside ($103.84 - $244.74) / $244.74 = -57.6% 19% rev growth, 28% terminal margin

Bull Case $154.47 36.9% downside ($154.47 - $244.74) / $244.74 = -36.9% 25% rev growth, 32% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

Revenue Growth Rate

19.0%

Terminal FCF Margin

28.0%

Discount Rate

12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (19%) × margin expansion to 28%

Terminal Value % of EV 57%

Implied Market Multiple 52.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $318.50 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.84 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay is 21% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.

ℹ Gross margin of 92% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $318.50 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep