AON - Aon plc
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$361.30
DETAILS
HIGH:
$423.00
LOW:
$317.00
MEDIAN:
$355.00
CONSENSUS:
$361.30
UPSIDE:
31.54%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
39.5%
8.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (39.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
6.23x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 39.5% vs. 8.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $44.09 tangible book, implying $274.78 per share. DDM cross-check: $1694.24.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$361.30
Analyst Range
$317.00 – $423.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $1694.24 (517% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly