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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.8% above fair value
Current Price $22.74
Bear Case $13.80 39.3% downside ($13.80 - $22.74) / $22.74 = -39.3% $1.15 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $17.25 24.1% downside ($17.25 - $22.74) / $22.74 = -24.1% $1.15 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $20.70 9.0% downside ($20.70 - $22.74) / $22.74 = -9.0% $1.15 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.15$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.15, the base-case value is $17.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.71.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 62%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 139% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples