Amkor Technology, Inc. logo AMKR - Amkor Technology, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $76.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $74.50
CONSENSUS: $76.00
UPSIDE: 15.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 73.4% above fair value
Current Price $66.06
Bear Case $29.15 55.9% downside ($29.15 - $66.06) / $66.06 = -55.9% $1.68 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $38.10 42.3% downside ($38.10 - $66.06) / $66.06 = -42.3% $1.68 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $47.06 28.8% downside ($47.06 - $66.06) / $66.06 = -28.8% $1.68 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.68$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.68)

Implied Market Multiple 39.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.10 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 3.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $76.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing