Amkor Technology, Inc. logo AMKR - Amkor Technology, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $78.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $78.75
UPSIDE: 64.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 77.9% above fair value
Current Price $47.88
Bear Case $20.18 57.8% downside ($20.18 - $47.88) / $47.88 = -57.8% $1.68 × 12x
Fair Value $26.91 43.8% downside ($26.91 - $47.88) / $47.88 = -43.8% $1.68 × 16x
Bull Case $33.64 29.7% downside ($33.64 - $47.88) / $47.88 = -29.7% $1.68 × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.68$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.68)

Implied Market Multiple 28.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.68 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $26.91 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.7x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $78.75
Analyst Range $65.00 – $90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 66%

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 2.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.75 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing