Autoliv, Inc. logo ALV - Autoliv, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 22
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $126.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $146.00
LOW: $116.00
MEDIAN: $122.00
CONSENSUS: $126.60
UPSIDE: 9.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.4% below fair value
Current Price $115.94
Bear Case $210.32 81.4% upside ($210.32 - $115.94) / $115.94 = 81.4% $9.56 × 22x P/E
Fair Value $248.56 114.4% upside ($248.56 - $115.94) / $115.94 = 114.4% $9.56 × 26x P/E
Bull Case $286.80 147.4% upside ($286.80 - $115.94) / $115.94 = 147.4% $9.56 × 30x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

26.0x
9.56$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 26x P/E to adjusted EPS of $9.56, the base-case value is $248.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $221.97.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (37 analysts) $126.60
Analyst Range $116.00 – $146.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 96%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $126.60 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 96% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples