AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ALK as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ALK is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ALK?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ALK's most recent reported fundamentals.

ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $67.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 32.1% below fair value

Current Price $41.34

Bear Case $48.69 17.8% upside ($48.69 - $41.34) / $41.34 = 17.8% $2.61 × 18x P/E

Fair Value $60.86 47.2% upside ($60.86 - $41.34) / $41.34 = 47.2% $2.61 × 22x P/E

Bull Case $73.04 76.7% upside ($73.04 - $41.34) / $41.34 = 76.7% $2.61 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

22.5x

Adjusted EPS

2.61$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.86 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 200%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 164% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples