AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Alaska Air Group, Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ALK as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ALK comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ALK?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ALK was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from ALK's most recent reported fundamentals.

ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $49.29 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate

Trading 23.6% below fair value

Current Price $34.40

Bear Case $36.00 4.7% upside ($36.00 - $34.40) / $34.40 = 4.7% $2.00 × 18x P/E

Fair Value $45.00 30.8% upside ($45.00 - $34.40) / $34.40 = 30.8% $2.00 × 22x P/E

Bull Case $54.00 57.0% upside ($54.00 - $34.40) / $34.40 = 57.0% $2.00 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

22.5x

Adjusted EPS

2.0$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 17.2x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.00, the base-case value is $45.00 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $49.29

Analyst Range $42.00 – $52.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 130%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 164% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

⚠ This stock is 43% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples