American International Group, Inc. logo AIG - American International Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 25
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.71 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $83.00
CONSENSUS: $85.71
UPSIDE: 11.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.2% below fair value
Current Price $77.05
Bear Case $50.01 35.1% downside ($50.01 - $77.05) / $77.05 = -35.1% ROTCE 6.5% → 0.77x TBV
Fair Value $93.11 20.8% upside ($93.11 - $77.05) / $77.05 = 20.8% ROTCE 8.7% → 1.43x TBV
Bull Case $118.97 54.4% upside ($118.97 - $77.05) / $77.05 = 54.4% ROTCE 10.0% → 1.83x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.7%
7.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.7%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.15x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.71 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.11 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly