AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Argan, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag AGX as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Argan, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for AGX comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value AGX?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. AGX was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from AGX's most recent reported fundamentals.

AGX - Argan, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $463.67 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 655.8% above fair value

Current Price $402.13

Bear Case $41.38 89.7% downside ($41.38 - $402.13) / $402.13 = -89.7% $2.96 × 14x

Fair Value $53.21 86.8% downside ($53.21 - $402.13) / $402.13 = -86.8% $2.96 × 18x

Bull Case $65.03 83.8% downside ($65.03 - $402.13) / $402.13 = -83.8% $2.96 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

2.96$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.96)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 136.0x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.96 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $53.21 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 13.0x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $463.67

Analyst Range $273.00 – $600.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 89%

Warnings

⚠ Recent profits ($9.73/share) are 229% above the mid-cycle average ($2.96). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 13.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $463.67 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing