Accel Entertainment, Inc. logo ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $13.00
CONSENSUS: $14.33
UPSIDE: 23.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.7% below fair value
Current Price $11.65
Bear Case $10.34 11.2% downside ($10.34 - $11.65) / $11.65 = -11.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $14.88 27.7% upside ($14.88 - $11.65) / $11.65 = 27.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $19.25 65.2% upside ($19.25 - $11.65) / $11.65 = 65.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.33 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.88 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions