ABBV - AbbVie Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$287.08
DETAILS
HIGH:
$315.00
LOW:
$235.00
MEDIAN:
$296.00
CONSENSUS:
$287.08
UPSIDE:
8.74%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
10.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.2x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.08, the base-case value is $141.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $188.49.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (43 analysts)
$287.08
Analyst Range
$235.00 – $315.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 325%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 292% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $188.49 (above our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $287.08 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples