AbbVie Inc. logo ABBV - AbbVie Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $256.92 DETAILS
HIGH: $298.00
LOW: $223.00
MEDIAN: $259.00
CONSENSUS: $256.92
UPSIDE: 18.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 23.2% above fair value
Current Price $216.63
Bear Case $150.78 30.4% downside ($150.78 - $216.63) / $216.63 = -30.4% $10.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $175.89 18.8% downside ($175.89 - $216.63) / $216.63 = -18.8% $10.08 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $201.03 7.2% downside ($201.03 - $216.63) / $216.63 = -7.2% $10.08 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
10.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $256.92 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $175.89 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 325%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 284% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $198.64 (above our primary estimate by 41%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $256.92 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples