AbbVie Inc. logo ABBV - AbbVie Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $279.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $235.00
MEDIAN: $281.00
CONSENSUS: $279.50
UPSIDE: 11.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 37.3% above fair value
Current Price $250.88
Bear Case $156.58 37.6% downside ($156.58 - $250.88) / $250.88 = -37.6% $10.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $182.67 27.2% downside ($182.67 - $250.88) / $250.88 = -27.2% $10.08 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $208.77 16.8% downside ($208.77 - $250.88) / $250.88 = -16.8% $10.08 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
10.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $279.50 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $182.67 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 325%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 288% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $193.24 (above our primary estimate by 37%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $279.50 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples