AbbVie Inc. logo ABBV - AbbVie Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 31
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $287.08 DETAILS
HIGH: $315.00
LOW: $235.00
MEDIAN: $296.00
CONSENSUS: $287.08
UPSIDE: 8.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 87.0% above fair value
Current Price $264.00
Bear Case $121.01 54.2% downside ($121.01 - $264.00) / $264.00 = -54.2% $10.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $141.17 46.5% downside ($141.17 - $264.00) / $264.00 = -46.5% $10.08 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $161.34 38.9% downside ($161.34 - $264.00) / $264.00 = -38.9% $10.08 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
10.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.08, the base-case value is $141.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $188.49.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $287.08
Analyst Range $235.00 – $315.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 51%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 325%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 292% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $188.49 (above our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $287.08 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples