ABN AMRO Bank N.V. logo AAVMY - ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.9% above fair value
Current Price $39.17
Bear Case $19.75 49.6% downside ($19.75 - $39.17) / $39.17 = -49.6% ROTCE 6.2% → 0.52x TBV
Fair Value $38.05 2.9% downside ($38.05 - $39.17) / $39.17 = -2.9% ROTCE 8.3% → 1.00x TBV
Bull Case $49.03 25.2% upside ($49.03 - $39.17) / $39.17 = 25.2% ROTCE 9.6% → 1.28x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.3%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.02x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.3% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.00x on $38.22 tangible book, implying $38.05 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (8.3%) is below the minimum investors require (8.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1634 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly