AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag AAP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for AAP is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value AAP?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from AAP's most recent reported fundamentals.

AAP - Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $59.80 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 40.8% below fair value

Current Price $57.95

Bear Case $85.67 47.8% upside ($85.67 - $57.95) / $57.95 = 47.8% $7.14 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $97.91 69.0% upside ($97.91 - $57.95) / $57.95 = 69.0% $7.14 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $110.15 90.1% upside ($110.15 - $57.95) / $57.95 = 90.1% $7.14 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

7.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $59.80 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.91 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 878%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 137% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $59.80 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 91% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples