AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Advance Auto Parts, Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag AAP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for AAP comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value AAP?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. AAP was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from AAP's most recent reported fundamentals.

AAP - Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $51.69 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 38.9% below fair value

Current Price $44.68

Bear Case $64.01 43.3% upside ($64.01 - $44.68) / $44.68 = 43.3% $4.57 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $73.15 63.7% upside ($73.15 - $44.68) / $44.68 = 63.7% $4.57 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $82.30 84.2% upside ($82.30 - $44.68) / $44.68 = 84.2% $4.57 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

4.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 9.8x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.57, the base-case value is $73.15 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (44 analysts) $51.69

Analyst Range $45.00 – $65.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 42%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 526%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 137% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $51.69 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 42% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples