Alcoa Corporation logo AA - Alcoa Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 23
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $68.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $53.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $68.50
UPSIDE: 41.30%
AlphaQuality

AlphaQuality

Quantitative six-pillar business-quality grade

Other Commodity Producers

AlphaQuality — archetype-weighted quantitative grade

C- 48.6 / 100 composite

Composite Grade

Composite of six pillars weighted for other commodity producers businesses. Purely quantitative — no stock price or analyst input.

Profitability

Weight: 15%
D 33.8
  • 5yr Avg ROIC 7.7% 48/100
  • Operating Margin Trend -2.99 pp/yr 0/100
Contributes 5.1 pts toward composite.

Capital Efficiency

Weight: 10%
F 15.8
  • 5yr Avg ROE 2.9% 24/100
  • 5yr Share-Count CAGR 8.5% 0/100
Contributes 1.6 pts toward composite.

Growth Quality

Weight: 5%
C+ 60.4
  • 5yr Revenue CAGR 0.8% 27/100
  • 5yr EPS CAGR 18.4% 93/100
  • Revenue-Growth Years (5) 4/5 80/100
Contributes 3.0 pts toward composite.

Cash Generation

Weight: 25%
C 54.3
  • 5yr FCF Margin 1.5% 33/100
  • 5yr FCF/NI Conversion 0.81x 81/100
Contributes 13.6 pts toward composite.

Balance Sheet

Weight: 25%
B 72.6
  • Net Debt / EBITDA 0.55x 90/100
  • Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int) 7.73x 76/100
  • Altman Z-Score 1.90 38/100
Contributes 18.1 pts toward composite.

Stability

Weight: 20%
D 35.9
  • EPS Volatility (σ/μ) 0.86 6/100
  • Piotroski F-Score 4 44/100
  • Negative-Revenue Years (5) 1/5 80/100
Contributes 7.2 pts toward composite.

Guru Flow

Curated superinvestor sentiment — not part of the AlphaQuality grade.
Accumulating

6 of 6 gurus held; 2 new buys; 3 added; 1 trimmed.

Holders
6 +2
Avg Δ position
+637.1%
New buys
2
Full exits
0
As of Q1 2026
How this is calculated

AlphaQuality grades six pillars from 0-100 and weights each by archetype:

  • Profitability (15%) — 5yr Avg ROIC, Operating Margin Trend
  • Capital Efficiency (10%) — 5yr Avg ROE, 5yr Share-Count CAGR
  • Growth Quality (5%) — 5yr Revenue CAGR, 5yr EPS CAGR, Revenue-Growth Years (5)
  • Cash Generation (25%) — 5yr FCF Margin, 5yr FCF/NI Conversion
  • Balance Sheet (25%) — Net Debt / EBITDA, Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int), Altman Z-Score
  • Stability (20%) — EPS Volatility (σ/μ), Piotroski F-Score, Negative-Revenue Years (5)

We deliberately ignore stock price, analyst targets, and consensus ratings so the grade is suitable for backtesting forward returns. A minimum of 5 fiscal years of audited statements is required; distressed and highly leveraged infrastructure businesses are declared ungradable rather than forced into a numeric score.