AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Alcoa Corporation as a Other Commodity Producers business and values it using FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios, then compares the result to the current market price to flag AA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Alcoa Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for AA comes from a FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Other Commodity Producers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value AA?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. AA was classified as Other Commodity Producers and is valued using FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios, built from AA's most recent reported fundamentals.

AA - Alcoa Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $60.17 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Other Commodity Producers 80% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 72.9% above fair value

Current Price $41.45

Bear Case $11.75 71.7% downside ($11.75 - $41.45) / $41.45 = -71.7% FCF −30% × 8x

Fair Value $23.97 42.2% downside ($23.97 - $41.45) / $41.45 = -42.2% Current FCF × 10x

Bull Case $39.53 4.6% downside ($39.53 - $41.45) / $41.45 = -4.6% FCF +30% × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

FCF Price Sensitivity

0.0%

EV/FCF Multiple

10.0x

Key Value Driver

Commodity price outlook and production volume

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At current commodity prices with a 10x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $23.97 per share. Range: $11.75 to $39.53.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (42 analysts) $60.17

Analyst Range $53.00 – $70.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 60%

Warnings

ℹ Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.

⚠ Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $60.17 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically