Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation logo ZWS - Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $62.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $58.00
CONSENSUS: $58.33
UPSIDE: 22.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.5% above fair value
Current Price $47.61
Bear Case $29.92 37.2% downside ($29.92 - $47.61) / $47.61 = -37.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $42.69 10.3% downside ($42.69 - $47.61) / $47.61 = -10.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $55.67 16.9% upside ($55.67 - $47.61) / $47.61 = 16.9% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 26.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 12.8% vs our 11.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $42.69 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $58.33
Analyst Range $55.00 – $62.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 27%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $58.33 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions