Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation logo ZWS - Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.71 DETAILS
HIGH: $58.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $54.71
UPSIDE: 13.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.9% above fair value
Current Price $48.00
Bear Case $29.21 39.2% downside ($29.21 - $48.00) / $48.00 = -39.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $41.06 14.5% downside ($41.06 - $48.00) / $48.00 = -14.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $52.96 10.3% upside ($52.96 - $48.00) / $48.00 = 10.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 29.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.71 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.06 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $54.71 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions