Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation logo ZWS - Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $59.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $54.86
UPSIDE: 14.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.2% above fair value
Current Price $47.73
Bear Case $29.23 38.8% downside ($29.23 - $47.73) / $47.73 = -38.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $41.09 13.9% downside ($41.09 - $47.73) / $47.73 = -13.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $53.00 11.0% upside ($53.00 - $47.73) / $47.73 = 11.0% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 28.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.9% vs our 10.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.86 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.09 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $54.86 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions