Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation logo ZWS - Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $62.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $59.00
CONSENSUS: $58.67
UPSIDE: 21.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.9% above fair value
Current Price $48.38
Bear Case $29.84 38.3% downside ($29.84 - $48.38) / $48.38 = -38.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $42.48 12.2% downside ($42.48 - $48.38) / $48.38 = -12.2% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $55.32 14.4% upside ($55.32 - $48.38) / $48.38 = 14.4% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 27.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.0% vs our 11.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $42.48 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $58.67
Analyst Range $55.00 – $62.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 28%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $58.67 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions