Zura Bio Limited logo ZURA - Zura Bio Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 5
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $15.00
CONSENSUS: $15.00
UPSIDE: 230.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.2% below fair value
Current Price $4.54
Bear Case $4.59 1.0% upside ($4.59 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 1.0% $0.21 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $5.35 17.9% upside ($5.35 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 17.9% $0.21 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $6.12 34.7% upside ($6.12 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 34.7% $0.21 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
0.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.35 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples