ZION - Zions Bancorporation, National Association
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$75.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$84.00
LOW:
$67.00
MEDIAN:
$75.50
CONSENSUS:
$75.33
UPSIDE:
18.87%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
14.8%
8.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.52x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 14.8% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.21x on $41.72 tangible book, implying $98.43 per share. DDM cross-check: $34.44.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (51 analysts)
$75.33
Analyst Range
$67.00 – $84.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $34.44 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $75.33 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly