Zions Bancorporation, National Association logo ZION - Zions Bancorporation, National Association

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 30
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $76.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $84.00
LOW: $72.00
MEDIAN: $75.50
CONSENSUS: $76.60
UPSIDE: 15.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.6% below fair value
Current Price $66.36
Bear Case $68.90 3.8% upside ($68.90 - $66.36) / $66.36 = 3.8% ROTCE 11.1% → 1.54x TBV
Fair Value $98.43 48.3% upside ($98.43 - $66.36) / $66.36 = 48.3% ROTCE 14.8% → 2.34x TBV
Bull Case $127.96 92.8% upside ($127.96 - $66.36) / $66.36 = 92.8% ROTCE 17.0% → 2.82x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.8%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.59x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.8% vs. 8.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.34x on $41.72 tangible book, implying $98.43 per share. DDM cross-check: $36.25.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (51 analysts) $76.60
Analyst Range $72.00 – $84.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 28%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $36.25 (63% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $76.60 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly