Zillow Group, Inc. Class A logo ZG - Zillow Group, Inc. Class A

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 25
HOLD 23
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $59.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $55.50
CONSENSUS: $59.86
UPSIDE: 86.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 59.2% above fair value
Current Price $32.14
Bear Case $20.18 37.2% downside ($20.18 - $32.14) / $32.14 = -37.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $20.18 37.2% downside ($20.18 - $32.14) / $32.14 = -37.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $20.18 37.2% downside ($20.18 - $32.14) / $32.14 = -37.2% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.7%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 0%

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $59.86 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.18 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 1696% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $59.86 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 95% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions