ZD - Ziff Davis, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$52.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$61.00
LOW:
$40.00
MEDIAN:
$54.00
CONSENSUS:
$52.25
DOWNSIDE:
3.20%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
75% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
8.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.1%
vs our 7.2% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.25 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.28 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 95% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.25 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 117% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions