Ziff Davis, Inc. logo ZD - Ziff Davis, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $61.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $52.25
UPSIDE: 1.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.1% below fair value
Current Price $51.60
Bear Case $80.52 56.1% upside ($80.52 - $51.60) / $51.60 = 56.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $101.28 96.3% upside ($101.28 - $51.60) / $51.60 = 96.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $120.25 133.0% upside ($120.25 - $51.60) / $51.60 = 133.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 8.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) -2.7% vs our 7.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.25 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.28 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 95% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.25 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 117% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions