Zebra Technologies Corporation logo ZBRA - Zebra Technologies Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $318.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $346.00
LOW: $296.00
MEDIAN: $317.00
CONSENSUS: $318.86
UPSIDE: 17.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 46.5% above fair value
Current Price $272.52
Bear Case $148.83 45.4% downside ($148.83 - $272.52) / $272.52 = -45.4% $9.45 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $186.03 31.7% downside ($186.03 - $272.52) / $272.52 = -31.7% $9.45 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $223.24 18.1% downside ($223.24 - $272.52) / $272.52 = -18.1% $9.45 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
9.45$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $318.86 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $186.03 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $318.86 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples