Clear Secure, Inc. logo YOU - Clear Secure, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $64.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $64.25
UPSIDE: 13.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.0% below fair value
Current Price $56.38
Bear Case $72.33 28.3% upside ($72.33 - $56.38) / $56.38 = 28.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $122.58 117.4% upside ($122.58 - $56.38) / $56.38 = 117.4% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $183.90 226.2% upside ($183.90 - $56.38) / $56.38 = 226.2% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 15.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 5.8% vs our 18.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.25 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $122.58 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 36% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $64.25 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions