Clear Secure, Inc. logo YOU - Clear Secure, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $63.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $63.00
UPSIDE: 12.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.4% below fair value
Current Price $55.76
Bear Case $72.19 29.5% upside ($72.19 - $55.76) / $55.76 = 29.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $122.33 119.4% upside ($122.33 - $55.76) / $55.76 = 119.4% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $183.53 229.2% upside ($183.53 - $55.76) / $55.76 = 229.2% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 15.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 5.7% vs our 18.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $63.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $122.33 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 36% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $63.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 118% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions