The York Water Company logo YORW - The York Water Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.3% above fair value
Current Price $29.87
Bear Case $19.46 34.9% downside ($19.46 - $29.87) / $29.87 = -34.9% $1.39 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $22.24 25.5% downside ($22.24 - $29.87) / $29.87 = -25.5% $1.39 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $25.02 16.2% downside ($25.02 - $29.87) / $29.87 = -16.2% $1.39 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.39$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.39, the base-case value is $22.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $19.37.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples