The York Water Company logo YORW - The York Water Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $31.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $31.00
DOWNSIDE: 9.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 53.4% above fair value
Current Price $34.12
Bear Case $19.46 43.0% downside ($19.46 - $34.12) / $34.12 = -43.0% $1.39 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $22.24 34.8% downside ($22.24 - $34.12) / $34.12 = -34.8% $1.39 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $25.02 26.7% downside ($25.02 - $34.12) / $34.12 = -26.7% $1.39 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.39$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.39, the base-case value is $22.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $19.51.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples