Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. logo YMM - Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.30 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.30
LOW: $11.30
MEDIAN: $11.30
CONSENSUS: $11.30
UPSIDE: 35.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 62.8% below fair value
Current Price $8.36
Bear Case $14.96 78.9% upside ($14.96 - $8.36) / $8.36 = 78.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $22.46 168.7% upside ($22.46 - $8.36) / $8.36 = 168.7% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $30.97 270.4% upside ($30.97 - $8.36) / $8.36 = 270.4% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 9.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $22.46 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1474 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions