Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. logo YMM - Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $10.50
CONSENSUS: $10.50
UPSIDE: 14.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.4% below fair value
Current Price $9.21
Bear Case $13.90 51.0% upside ($13.90 - $9.21) / $9.21 = 51.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $19.77 114.7% upside ($19.77 - $9.21) / $9.21 = 114.7% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $26.12 183.7% upside ($26.12 - $9.21) / $9.21 = 183.7% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 11.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 1.1% vs our 13.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $19.77 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1477 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions