YETI Holdings, Inc. logo YETI - YETI Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $42.00
MEDIAN: $56.50
CONSENSUS: $56.75
UPSIDE: 31.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 23.3% above fair value
Current Price $43.08
Bear Case $28.53 33.8% downside ($28.53 - $43.08) / $43.08 = -33.8% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $34.94 18.9% downside ($34.94 - $43.08) / $43.08 = -18.9% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $40.74 5.4% downside ($40.74 - $43.08) / $43.08 = -5.4% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 18.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.9% vs our 7.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $34.94 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $56.75
Analyst Range $42.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $56.75 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions