YETI Holdings, Inc. logo YETI - YETI Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.22 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $42.00
MEDIAN: $51.00
CONSENSUS: $50.22
UPSIDE: 2.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 26.0% above fair value
Current Price $48.88
Bear Case $31.63 35.3% downside ($31.63 - $48.88) / $48.88 = -35.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $38.79 20.6% downside ($38.79 - $48.88) / $48.88 = -20.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $45.28 7.4% downside ($45.28 - $48.88) / $48.88 = -7.4% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 21.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.6% vs our 7.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.22 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.79 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $50.22 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions