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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 655.9% above fair value
Current Price $4.77
Bear Case $0.54 88.7% downside ($0.54 - $4.77) / $4.77 = -88.7% $0.03 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $0.63 86.8% downside ($0.63 - $4.77) / $4.77 = -86.8% $0.03 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $0.72 84.9% downside ($0.72 - $4.77) / $4.77 = -84.9% $0.03 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
0.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 158.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.03, the base-case value is $0.63 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This stock is 78% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples