Block, Inc. logo XYZ - Block, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 25
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $82.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $91.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $83.00
CONSENSUS: $82.43
UPSIDE: 21.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 40.0% above fair value
Current Price $68.07
Bear Case $48.62 28.6% downside ($48.62 - $68.07) / $68.07 = -28.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $48.62 28.6% downside ($48.62 - $68.07) / $68.07 = -28.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $51.31 24.6% downside ($51.31 - $68.07) / $68.07 = -24.6% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 28%
Implied Market Multiple 24.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.43 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.62 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 93% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $82.43 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions