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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 66.9% below fair value
Current Price $47.09
Bear Case $80.01 69.9% upside ($80.01 - $47.09) / $47.09 = 69.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $142.08 201.7% upside ($142.08 - $47.09) / $47.09 = 201.7% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $218.16 363.3% upside ($218.16 - $47.09) / $47.09 = 363.3% 25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 14.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 4.3% vs our 19.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $142.08 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from NZD into USD using NZDUSD at 0.5782 USD per NZD.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions