AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies XPO Logistics, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag XPO as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is XPO Logistics, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for XPO comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value XPO?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. XPO was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from XPO's most recent reported fundamentals.

XPO - XPO Logistics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $231.85 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 1062.2% above fair value

Current Price $188.56

Bear Case $11.80 93.7% downside ($11.80 - $188.56) / $188.56 = -93.7% $2.95 × 4x

Fair Value $16.23 91.4% downside ($16.23 - $188.56) / $188.56 = -91.4% $2.95 × 6x

Bull Case $20.65 89.0% downside ($20.65 - $188.56) / $188.56 = -89.0% $2.95 × 7x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

5.5x

Normalized EPS

2.95$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.95)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 63.9x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.95 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $16.23 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 7359.3x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $231.85

Analyst Range $115.00 – $270.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 93%

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 7359.3x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $231.85 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing