XNCR - Xencor, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$27.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$27.00
LOW:
$27.00
MEDIAN:
$27.00
CONSENSUS:
$27.00
UPSIDE:
83.92%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
High-Growth Software
80% confidence
Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Adjust Assumptions
16.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (16%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
67%
Implied Market Multiple
5.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.71 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 34% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 28% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Gross margin of 92% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep