Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. logo XHR - Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $20.50
MEDIAN: $21.00
CONSENSUS: $21.17
UPSIDE: 20.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.5% below fair value
Current Price $17.64
Bear Case $29.43 66.8% upside ($29.43 - $17.64) / $17.64 = 66.8% $2.10 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $35.63 102.0% upside ($35.63 - $17.64) / $17.64 = 102.0% $2.10 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $41.84 137.2% upside ($41.84 - $17.64) / $17.64 = 137.2% $2.10 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
2.1$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.10) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.10 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $35.63 per share. Dividend yield: 3.2%. DDM cross-check: $10.44.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $21.17
Analyst Range $20.50 – $22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 68%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.44 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.17 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify