Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. logo XHR - Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.00
UPSIDE: 7.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 47.6% below fair value
Current Price $16.82
Bear Case $26.52 57.7% upside ($26.52 - $16.82) / $16.82 = 57.7% $2.10 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $32.10 90.9% upside ($32.10 - $16.82) / $16.82 = 90.9% $2.10 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $37.70 124.1% upside ($37.70 - $16.82) / $16.82 = 124.1% $2.10 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
2.1$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.10) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.10 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.44 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 98% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify