Wynn Resorts, Limited logo WYNN - Wynn Resorts, Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $141.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $155.00
LOW: $127.00
MEDIAN: $140.50
CONSENSUS: $141.00
UPSIDE: 45.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 83.6% above fair value
Current Price $97.24
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $97.24) / $97.24 = -100.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $52.95 45.5% downside ($52.95 - $97.24) / $97.24 = -45.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $133.29 37.1% upside ($133.29 - $97.24) / $97.24 = 37.1% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 32.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.00 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.95 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $141.00 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions