Wynn Resorts, Limited logo WYNN - Wynn Resorts, Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $136.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $125.00
MEDIAN: $134.00
CONSENSUS: $136.33
UPSIDE: 36.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 91.7% above fair value
Current Price $99.93
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $99.93) / $99.93 = -100.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $52.12 47.8% downside ($52.12 - $99.93) / $99.93 = -47.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $128.79 28.9% upside ($128.79 - $99.93) / $99.93 = 28.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 33.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.7% vs our 8.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $136.33 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.12 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $136.33 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions