WYNN - Wynn Resorts, Limited
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$136.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$150.00
LOW:
$125.00
MEDIAN:
$134.00
CONSENSUS:
$136.33
UPSIDE:
36.43%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
85% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
8.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
33.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.7%
vs our 8.4% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $136.33 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $136.33 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions