Wynn Resorts, Limited logo WYNN - Wynn Resorts, Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $133.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $146.00
LOW: $120.00
MEDIAN: $133.50
CONSENSUS: $133.10
UPSIDE: 37.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 93.6% above fair value
Current Price $96.77
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $96.77) / $96.77 = -100.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $49.99 48.3% downside ($49.99 - $96.77) / $96.77 = -48.3% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $128.71 33.0% upside ($128.71 - $96.77) / $96.77 = 33.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 32.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.5% vs our 8.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $133.10 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.99 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $133.10 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions