WTW - Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$356.64
DETAILS
HIGH:
$406.00
LOW:
$300.00
MEDIAN:
$360.00
CONSENSUS:
$356.64
UPSIDE:
9.62%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
20.1%
6.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (20.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.79x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 20.1% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $85.88 tangible book, implying $343.53 per share. DDM cross-check: $112.58.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$356.64
Analyst Range
$300.00 – $406.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $112.58 (67% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly