Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company logo WTW - Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 17
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $356.64 DETAILS
HIGH: $406.00
LOW: $300.00
MEDIAN: $360.00
CONSENSUS: $356.64
UPSIDE: 9.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.3% below fair value
Current Price $325.34
Bear Case $343.53 5.6% upside ($343.53 - $325.34) / $325.34 = 5.6% ROTCE 15.1% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $343.53 5.6% upside ($343.53 - $325.34) / $325.34 = 5.6% ROTCE 20.1% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $343.53 5.6% upside ($343.53 - $325.34) / $325.34 = 5.6% ROTCE 23.1% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

20.1%
6.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (20.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.79x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 20.1% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $85.88 tangible book, implying $343.53 per share. DDM cross-check: $112.58.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $356.64
Analyst Range $300.00 – $406.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $112.58 (67% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly