Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company logo WTW - Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 18
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $337.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $409.00
LOW: $275.00
MEDIAN: $338.00
CONSENSUS: $337.38
UPSIDE: 31.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.8% below fair value
Current Price $257.40
Bear Case $335.46 30.3% upside ($335.46 - $257.40) / $257.40 = 30.3% ROTCE 15.1% → 3.97x TBV
Fair Value $337.69 31.2% upside ($337.69 - $257.40) / $257.40 = 31.2% ROTCE 20.1% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $337.69 31.2% upside ($337.69 - $257.40) / $257.40 = 31.2% ROTCE 23.1% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

20.1%
6.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (20.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.05x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $337.38 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $337.69 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $102.75 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly