Select Water Solutions, Inc. logo WTTR - Select Water Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 11
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $21.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
UPSIDE: 14.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 85.2% above fair value
Current Price $19.18
Bear Case $9.06 52.8% downside ($9.06 - $19.18) / $19.18 = -52.8% $0.31 × 21x P/E
Fair Value $10.35 46.0% downside ($10.35 - $19.18) / $19.18 = -46.0% $0.31 × 24x P/E
Bull Case $11.65 39.3% downside ($11.65 - $19.18) / $19.18 = -39.3% $0.31 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

24.0x
0.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 61.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.35 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 55%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 140% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples