Watts Water Technologies, Inc. logo WTS - Watts Water Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $363.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $460.00
LOW: $320.00
MEDIAN: $358.00
CONSENSUS: $363.00
UPSIDE: 3.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 15.2% above fair value
Current Price $352.36
Bear Case $207.91 41.0% downside ($207.91 - $352.36) / $352.36 = -41.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $305.76 13.2% downside ($305.76 - $352.36) / $352.36 = -13.2% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $410.13 16.4% upside ($410.13 - $352.36) / $352.36 = 16.4% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 34.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 16.1% vs our 13.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $363.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $305.76 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions