Essential Utilities, Inc. logo WTRG - Essential Utilities, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $49.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $44.50
CONSENSUS: $44.50
UPSIDE: 3.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.1% above fair value
Current Price $43.11
Bear Case $36.59 15.1% downside ($36.59 - $43.11) / $43.11 = -15.1% $2.20 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $41.81 3.0% downside ($41.81 - $43.11) / $43.11 = -3.0% $2.20 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $47.04 9.1% upside ($47.04 - $43.11) / $43.11 = 9.1% $2.20 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.0x
2.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.20, the base-case value is $41.81 per share. DDM cross-check: $46.71.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $44.50
Analyst Range $40.00 – $49.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 6%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples