Essential Utilities, Inc. logo WTRG - Essential Utilities, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $42.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $41.00
CONSENSUS: $40.33
UPSIDE: 7.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.7% below fair value
Current Price $37.44
Bear Case $36.27 3.1% downside ($36.27 - $37.44) / $37.44 = -3.1% $2.20 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $41.45 10.7% upside ($41.45 - $37.44) / $37.44 = 10.7% $2.20 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $46.64 24.6% upside ($46.64 - $37.44) / $37.44 = 24.6% $2.20 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.0x
2.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.33 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.45 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples