White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. logo WTM - White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 67.6% below fair value
Current Price $2146.85
Bear Case $6,617.27 208.2% upside ($6,617.27 - $2,146.85) / $2,146.85 = 208.2% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $6,617.27 208.2% upside ($6,617.27 - $2,146.85) / $2,146.85 = 208.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $6,617.27 208.2% upside ($6,617.27 - $2,146.85) / $2,146.85 = 208.2% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

27.0%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (27.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.3x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 27.0% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $1654.32 tangible book, implying $6617.27 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly