Wintrust Financial Corporation logo WTFC - Wintrust Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 14
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $174.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $185.00
LOW: $160.00
MEDIAN: $175.00
CONSENSUS: $174.57
UPSIDE: 16.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.7% below fair value
Current Price $149.89
Bear Case $108.36 27.7% downside ($108.36 - $149.89) / $149.89 = -27.7% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.14x TBV
Fair Value $169.78 13.3% upside ($169.78 - $149.89) / $149.89 = 13.3% ROTCE 12.9% → 1.78x TBV
Bull Case $206.63 37.9% upside ($206.63 - $149.89) / $149.89 = 37.9% ROTCE 14.9% → 2.17x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.9%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.59x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $174.57 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $169.78 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly