West Bancorporation, Inc. logo WTBA - West Bancorporation, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.6% below fair value
Current Price $23.65
Bear Case $18.73 20.8% downside ($18.73 - $23.65) / $23.65 = -20.8% ROTCE 9.2% → 1.20x TBV
Fair Value $29.80 26.0% upside ($29.80 - $23.65) / $23.65 = 26.0% ROTCE 12.2% → 1.91x TBV
Bull Case $36.43 54.1% upside ($36.43 - $23.65) / $23.65 = 54.1% ROTCE 14.1% → 2.33x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.2%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.51x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.2% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.91x on $15.62 tangible book, implying $29.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $12.68.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $12.68 (57% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly