West Bancorporation, Inc. logo WTBA - West Bancorporation, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
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HOLD 2
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.7% below fair value
Current Price $29.37
Bear Case $19.59 33.3% downside ($19.59 - $29.37) / $29.37 = -33.3% ROTCE 9.2% → 1.26x TBV
Fair Value $31.16 6.1% upside ($31.16 - $29.37) / $29.37 = 6.1% ROTCE 12.2% → 2.00x TBV
Bull Case $38.10 29.7% upside ($38.10 - $29.37) / $29.37 = 29.7% ROTCE 14.1% → 2.44x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.2%
8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.88x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.2% vs. 8.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.00x on $15.61 tangible book, implying $31.16 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.12.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $13.12 (58% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly