West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. logo WST - West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $407.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $447.00
LOW: $365.00
MEDIAN: $407.50
CONSENSUS: $407.00
UPSIDE: 12.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 251.6% above fair value
Current Price $362.16
Bear Case $82.40 77.2% downside ($82.40 - $362.16) / $362.16 = -77.2% $6.80 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $103.00 71.6% downside ($103.00 - $362.16) / $362.16 = -71.6% $6.80 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $123.61 65.9% downside ($123.61 - $362.16) / $362.16 = -65.9% $6.80 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.1x
6.8$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 53.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.80, the base-case value is $103.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $23.46.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $407.00
Analyst Range $365.00 – $447.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 75%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $23.46 (below our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $407.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples