WST - West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$407.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$447.00
LOW:
$365.00
MEDIAN:
$407.50
CONSENSUS:
$407.00
UPSIDE:
12.38%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.1x
6.8$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
53.3x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.80, the base-case value is $103.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $23.46.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$407.00
Analyst Range
$365.00 – $447.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
75%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $23.46 (below our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $407.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples