West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. logo WST - West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $372.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $447.00
LOW: $295.00
MEDIAN: $377.50
CONSENSUS: $372.13
UPSIDE: 6.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 104.7% above fair value
Current Price $348.76
Bear Case $136.31 60.9% downside ($136.31 - $348.76) / $348.76 = -60.9% $6.81 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $170.39 51.1% downside ($170.39 - $348.76) / $348.76 = -51.1% $6.81 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $204.47 41.4% downside ($204.47 - $348.76) / $348.76 = -41.4% $6.81 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.1x
6.81$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 51.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $372.13 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $170.39 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $23.46 (below our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $372.13 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples