West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. logo WST - West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $330.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $400.00
LOW: $295.00
MEDIAN: $317.50
CONSENSUS: $330.83
UPSIDE: 0.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 104.9% above fair value
Current Price $328.03
Bear Case $128.05 61.0% downside ($128.05 - $328.03) / $328.03 = -61.0% $6.81 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $160.06 51.2% downside ($160.06 - $328.03) / $328.03 = -51.2% $6.81 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $192.06 41.4% downside ($192.06 - $328.03) / $328.03 = -41.4% $6.81 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.1x
6.81$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 48.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $330.83 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $160.06 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $23.52 (below our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $330.83 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples