Whitestone REIT logo WSR - Whitestone REIT

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $18.25
DOWNSIDE: 3.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.5% below fair value
Current Price $18.99
Bear Case $23.19 22.1% upside ($23.19 - $18.99) / $18.99 = 22.1% $1.67 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $29.00 52.7% upside ($29.00 - $18.99) / $18.99 = 52.7% $1.67 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $34.79 83.2% upside ($34.79 - $18.99) / $18.99 = 83.2% $1.67 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
1.67$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.67) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.25 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.00 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 2.0% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.25 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify